BERLIN — IATA\u2019s senior economist George Anjaparidze provided a sobering, but still hopeful, outlook for global air cargo markets in his Plenary Session presentation \u201cWhen Will Growth Return?\u201d at the 2016 World Cargo Symposium here yesterday. The answer to the question in the speech\u2019s title might be \u201ceventually, but not as much as you\u2019d hoped.\u201d
\nPulling air cargo industry information from IATA\u2019s latest Cargo Chartbook, he said the industry continues to see growth \u2013 \u201cslower that anticipated and lower than its potential,\u201d but still growth. He also warned that \u201cthe world was on the verge of a \u2018new mediocre\u2019 \u2026 becoming the \u2018new reality.\u2019\u201d
\nEmerging economies, Anjaparidze said, \u201care growing below their potential and China\u2019s growth is also slowing,\u201d while other regions, such as Brazil, are into negative economic growth or in full recession.
\n\u201cBut that\u2019s not even the bad news,\u201d he said. The International Monetary Fund is revising its forecast downward in April, \u201csame as they have done for the last four years.\u201d
\nAnjaparidze, however, said that not all was doom and gloom. If you looked in the right places, such as the Eurozone, some growth \u201cactually came back last year and will continue this year.\u201d The best part, he said, is that Europe is \u201cnot just a large economy, but a large economy; it\u2019s also open for other countries that trade with Europe,\u201d which give it more influence, globally.
\nU.S. volumes slowed somewhat last year, he said, but upon closer inspection, the slowdown there was driven mostly by a cutback in the energy sector and some weather events. \u201cBut unemployment is down to levels before the global economic crisis,\u201d he added.
\nThe China slowdown is more worrisome, Anjaparidze said, given the impact it has already had across the world. \u201cBut an economy moving away from investment-driven growth to a consumer-driven growth is generally a good thing. It\u2019s just the pace at which this happened has created shock across world commodities.\u201d
\nEnergy prices were driven down by supply-side factors, he continued, \u00a0Prices have come down, which should be a major stimulus to the economy. \u201cBut we have not seen that materialize,\u201d he said, adding that \u201cthose benefits to lower prices may still be on the horizon.\u201d
\nOverall, world trade growth has been very weak \u2013 only 0.6 percent higher — but FTKs have continued their growth momentum, which he said was good news. Air cargo was not hit as adversely, and consumer confidence seems to be on the rise.
\n\u201cLast month\u2019s figures show contraction of export orders, which may mean we\u2019ll see some short-term headwinds,\u201d Anjaparidze said. \u201cFuel prices have fallen significantly, which may have some short-term benefits \u2013 but that\u2019s often a double-edged sword. It makes it cheaper to use old aircraft, and there is all this capacity on the sidelines.\u201d
\nTo sum up, he said, there is positive economic momentum, but in the short-term we have export weaknesses. \u201cConsumer confidence is so far the best sign of optimism, he said.
\nAir Cargo World is the Official Media Sponsor of the IATA World Cargo Symposium.
\nSource: aircargoworld<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"